Economic Conditions and Outlook

Research

2020

• Regional Economic Update: Conditions Good, Outlook Brightening, Pia Orrenius, January 2020.

2016

• Lingering Energy Bust Depresses, Doesn’t Sink Texas State Budget, Jason Saving, Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2016.
• New Mexico Recovery Lags amid Energy, Government Sector Weakness, Roberto Coronado and Marycruz De León, Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2016.
• Noteworthy: Inequality: Intergenerational Mobility Higher in Houston, Stephanie Gullo, Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2016.
• Noteworthy: Well-Being: Texas Income, Health Coverage Improve in 2015, Sarah Greer, Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2016.
• On the Record: A Conversation with Adrián Mijares Elizondo: Cinépolis Theater Chain Seeks North Texas Stardom, Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2016.
• Texas Border Cities Illustrate Benefits and Challenges of Trade, Jesus Cañas, Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2016.
• Less Involuntary Part-Time Work Suggests Texas Economic Strength, Anil Kumar and Michael Weiss, Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2016.
• On the Record: Corporate Tax Overhaul Plan Targets Disincentives to Invest in the U.S. A Conversation with Alan D. Viard, Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2016.
• Spotlight: Texas Business Starts Outperform U.S.; Formation Rates Decline, Jack Wang and Michael Weiss, Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2016.
• Texas Enterprise Zone Benefits for Poor Prove Elusive, Wenhua Di and Daniel Millimet, Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2016.
• Energy Bust Bad News for Job and Wage Growth, Pia M. Orrenius, Annual Report, April 2016.
• Will Oil Decline Lead to a House Price Bust?, John V. Duca, Annual Report, April 2016.
• At the Heart of Texas: Cities’ Industry Clusters Drive Growth, Laila Assanie, Kristin E. Davis, Pia M. Orrenius, and Michael Weiss, Special Report, February 2016.
• Houston Grinds to a Halt as Oil Industry Declines, Jesse Thompson, Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2016.
• Noteworthy: Low Oil Prices Depress Energy States’ GDP Growth, Sarah Greer, Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2016.
• Noteworthy: Texas Ranks High in H.S. Graduates, Lags in College Prep, Emily Gutierrez, Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2016.
• On the Record: Playing to Houston’s Strengths: Internationalism, Energy, Innovation. A Conversation with Annise Parker, Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2016.
• Once-Robust Wage Growth Stops as Texas Economy Slows, Amy Jordan and Emily Gutierrez, Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2016.
• Border: Joblessness Falls Despite Weak Employment Growth, Christopher Slijk, Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2016.
• High School Financial Literacy Mandate Could Boost Texas' Economic Well-Being, Camden Cornwell and Anthony Murphy, Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2016.
• Texas Economy Remains Resilient, but Low Oil Prices Loom as Future Risk, Keith R. Phillips and Christopher Slijk, Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2016.

2015

• Labor: Fewer Texans than U.S. Average Hold Two or More Jobs, Michael Weiss, Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2015.
• Texas Health Coverage Lags as Medicaid Expands in U.S., Jason Saving and Sarah Greer, Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2015.
• Education: Texas Near Bottom in Spending for Public Schools, Emily Gutierrez, Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2015.
• Income: Obama Plan to Give More Managers Overtime Pay, Michael, Weiss, Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2015.
• Spotlight: Diversified Houston Spared Recession ... So Far, Jesse Thompson, Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2015.
• Wage Flexibility in Texas May Ease Impact of Tighter Monetary Policy, Anil Kumar, Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2015.
• Seasonal Adjustment of State and Metro CES Jobs Data, Keith R. Phillips and Jianguo Wang, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Research Department Working Paper No.1505.
• ADP Payroll and Processing Data Can Provide Early Look at Texas Job Growth, Keith R. Phillips and Christopher Slijk, Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2015.
• Income Disparity: Inequality Lower in Large Texas Cities, Emily Gutierrez, Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2015.
• Are Income Taxes Destined to Rise? The Fiscal Imbalance and Future Tax Policy, Jason L. Saving and Alan D. Viard, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Research Department Working Paper No.1502.
• Incentives Draw Firms, but at What Cost?, Michael Weiss, Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2015.
• Lower Oil Prices Weaken Prospects for Job, Economic Growth in Texas, Michael D. Plante, Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2015.
• Retirement: Unfunded Texas Health Benefits Add to State Liabilities, Sarah Greer, Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2015.
• Texas Facing Economic Headwinds in 2015, Keith R. Phillips and Christopher Slijk, Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2015.
• Texas Metros’ Rapid Growth Likely to Slow Following Energy Price Drop, Amy Jordan, Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2015.
• Workforce: Energy Only 3 Percent of Texas Private-Sector Jobs, Kristin Davis, Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2015.
• Declining Female Labor Supply Elasticities in the U.S. and Implications for Tax Policy: Evidence from Panel Data, Anil Kumar and Che-Yuan Liang, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Research Department Working Paper No. 1501.
  

2014

• Health Care: Medicaid Surge Along Border Signals Spending Rise, Christopher Slijk, Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2014.
• Income: Texas Median Rises 1 Percent, Outpacing National Growth, Kristin Shepard, Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2014.
• Spotlight: NAFTA at 20: Shortcomings Suggest Trade Agreement Alone Isn’t Enough, Pia Orrenius and Jesús Cañas, Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2014.
• Consumer Price Differences Persist Among Eight Texas Cities, Michele Ca’Zorzi, Alexander Chudik and Chi-Young Choi, Economic Letter, December 2014.
• Budget Balancing Act: Health and Education Stretch Texas Resources, Jason Saving, Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2014.
• Business Climate: Texas Edges Out Florida for Survey’s Top Spot, Sarah Binder, Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2014.
  
• Spotlight: Cities Look to Regenerate Activity at Old Malls, Michael Weiss, Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2014.
• U.S. Budget Deficits Shrink, but Long-Run Issues Remain, Jason Saving, Economic Letter, March 2014.
• A Closer Look at the Phillips Curve Using State Level Data, Anil Kumar and Pia Orrenius, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Research Department Working Paper No. 1409.
  
• On the Record: Texas Students Often Lack Skills, Financial Knowledge for College Success, Jeff Webster, Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2014.
• Strength of Economy, Limited Benefit Eligibility in Texas Curb Long-Term Unemployment Rate, Anil Kumar, Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2014.
• Texas to Remain a Top State for Job Growth in 2014, Keith Phillips and Christopher Slijk, Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2014.
• Texas Leads Nation in Creation of Jobs at All Pay Levels, Melissa LoPalo and Pia Orrenius, Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2014.
• Spotlight: Health Coverage Misses Many in DFW, Texas, Jason Saving and Michael Weiss, Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2014.
• Health Insurance: Texas Leads States in Medical Coverage Gap, Christina English, Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2014.

2013

• Gone to Texas: Immigration and the Transformation of the Texas Economy, Pia Orrenius, Madeline Zavodny, and Melissa LoPalo, Special Report, December 2013.
• Water Scarcity a Potential Drain on the Texas Economy, Keith Phillips, Edward Rodrigue and Mine Yucel, Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2013.
• Noteworthy: Texas Contractors May Feel New Sequester Cuts, Michael Weiss, Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2013.
• Noteworthy: Despite Gains, Texas Still Trails U.S. in Key Measures, Christina English, Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2013.
• Barbeque vs. Gumbo: Economic Traits Tie Neighboring Texas and Louisiana, Jason Saving and Michael Weiss, Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2013.
• Firms Expect Health Act to Raise Labor Costs, Amy Jordan and Pia Orrenius, Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2013.
• Population: Texas Top Destination for Cross-State Moves, Christina Daly, Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2013.
• Birth Rates: Texas Leads U.S. in Teens Having Multiple Children, Michael Weiss, Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2013.
• Texas Housing Recovery Gains Momentum, D'Ann Petersen and Christina Daly, Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2013.
• Texas Likely to Continue to Lead Nation's Recovery, Keith Phillips, Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2013.
• On the Record: Hispanic Workforce Faces Smaller but Persistent Education, Wage Gaps, Marie T. Mora, Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2013.

2012

• Determining Credit Worthiness and Texas' Case for a Top Rating, Jason Saving, Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2012.
• Brutal Drought Depresses Agriculture, Thwarting U.S. and Texas Economies, Emily Kerr, Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2012.
• Texas Housing Market Finally Building a Solid Recovery, D'Ann Petersen, Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2012.
• Employment: Dallas, Houston Among Best Cities for New Grads, Christina Daly, Southwest Economy , Third Quarter 2012.
• Texas Economy Moves from Recovery to Expansion, Keith R. Phillips and Jesus Cañas, Southwest Economy , First Quarter 2012.
• Spotlight: Reducing Ranks of Uninsured Texans Comes at a Price, Yingda Bi, Southwest Economy , First Quarter 2012.
• Population Growth: Texas' 10-Year Increase Leads the States, Christina Daly, Southwest Economy , First Quarter 2012.

2011

• States Still Feel Recession's Effects Two Years After Downturn's End, Jason Saving, Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2011.
• Spotlight: Texas Employment Gains Aren’t Simply a Low-Wage Jobs Story, Pia Orrenius and Yingda Bi, Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2011.
• Personal Income: Further Declines Seen in Texas and U.S., Christina Daly, Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2011.
• Defense Spending: Economic Benefit Likely to Diminish in Texas, Jackson Thies, Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2011.
• Breaking Out of Recession: Gauging Texas’ Response to Fed Stimulus, David Luttrell and Harvey Rosenblum, Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2011.
• Underemployment Poses Long-Term Financial Risk to More Workers, Anil Kumar and Michael Weiss, Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2011.
• Spotlight: Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey Completing the Regional Economic Picture, Jesus Cañas and Emily Kerr, Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2011.
• Texas Economy to Ride Higher in the Saddle in 2011, Keith R. Phillips and Emily Kerr, Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2011.
• Spotlight: Educational Opportunity Does Low-Income Housing Tax Credit Hurt Nearby Schools?, Wenhua Di and James C. Murdoch, Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2011.
• New Texans: Other States Provide One-Third of Arrivals After 2005, Yingda Bi, Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2011.
• Higher Education: Texans Return to Classroom as Employment Lags, Adam Swadley, Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2011.

2010

• Income and Poverty: Texans Slip During Recession, Yingda Bi, Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2010.
• Airlines: Texas Carriers Fly Fuller; Mergers Ahead, Adam Swadley, Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2010.
• Poor State Finances Deepen Recessionary Hole, Jason Saving, Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2010.
• New Tool Gauges Impact of Exchange Rates on States, Keith R. Phillips, Steve Brzezinski, and Barbara Davalos, Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2010.
• Low Job Creation Accelerates in the Downturn, Yingda Bi and Barbara Davalos, Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2010.
• Texas Grows Despite Recessionary Doldrums, Mike Nicholson, Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2010.
• Texas Twist: Why Did State's Unemployment Fall Below Nation's?, Anil Kumar, Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2010.
• Fortune 500: Texas Ties California for National Lead, Mike Nicholson, Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2010.
• Texas Economy Shakes Off Rough Ride in 2009, Laila Assanie and Pia Orrenius, Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2010.

2009

• Recession Arrives in Texas: A Rougher Ride in 2009, Keith R. Phillips and Jesus Cañas, Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2009.
• Keys to Economic Growth: What Drives Texas?, Jason Saving, Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2009.

2008

• Regional Update: U.S. Slowdown Reaches Texas, Keith R. Phillips and Mike Nicholson, Southwest Economy, Nov./Dec. 2008.
• Regional Update: Outside Forces Still Sapping Texas Economy’s Vitality, Mike Nicholson, Southwest Economy, Sept./Oct. 2008.
• New Dallas Fed Indicator Tracks Texas Retail Sales, Jesus Cañas and Keith R. Phillips, Southwest Economy, Sept./Oct. 2008.
• Texas Economy Feels National Pinch, Laila Assanie and Raghav Virmani, Southwest Economy, July/Aug. 2008.
• Regional Update: Texas Economy Still Slowing; Energy, Exports Are Bright Spots, Jason Saving and Mike Nicholson, Southwest Economy, May/June 2008.
• Regional Update: Texas Economy Continues to Cool, Fiona Sigalla, Southwest Economy, March/April 2008.
• Texas Finds Cover from U.S. Economic Storm, Fiona Sigalla, Southwest Economy, Jan./Feb. 2008.

2007

• Industry Clusters Shape Texas Economy, D'Ann Petersen, Southwest Economy,Sept./Oct. 2007.
• Texas Transitions to Service Economy, D'Ann Petersen, Southwest Economy,May/June 2007.
• The Texas Economy: Almost a Boom, Fiona Sigalla, Southwest Economy,Jan./Feb. 2007.