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Texas Economy

Impact of COVID-19 on Small Service Firms Clouds Texas Jobs Estimates

Emma Marshall and Keith R. Phillips

The 2020 downturn has differed from past recessions in many ways, particularly affecting high-contact service industries that contain a large number of independent businesses with few employees.

November 17, 2020

Texas Rebound Likely Slowed by Renewed COVID-19 Impact on Services, Retail

Yichen Su and Carlee Crocker

Indicative of slowing job expansion, the Texas unemployment rate rose to 8.3 percent in September from 6.8 percent in August and exceeded the national rate (7.9 percent) for the first time since March.

November 12, 2020

Texas Economy Improves Despite Lagging Sectors as COVID-19 Cases Decline

Pia Orrenius and Chloe Smith

Continued growth is projected for the rest of the year, but it may be somewhat restrained by the expiration of federal stimulus programs and election uncertainty.

September 24, 2020

Texas Weekly Employment Estimate Provides New, Early Economic Insights

Jesus Cañas, Keith R. Phillips and Carlee Crocker

In this environment where economic conditions change very quickly and can reverse with the spread of the virus, tracking the Texas economy requires a timelier indicator than standard quarterly and monthly economic measures.

August 18, 2020

Insights from Dallas Fed Surveys: Uneven Economic Recovery Likely in Texas

Emily Kerr and Christopher Slijk

The Dallas Fed’s Texas Business Outlook Surveys (TBOS) show that while recovery continued in some sectors in July, it faltered in others as new COVID-19 cases surged across the state.

August 11, 2020

Texas Economy’s Rebound Stalls in July after Gains in May, June

Christopher Slijk and Keighton Hines

The resurgence of COVID-19 in July appears to have reversed economic gains in Texas that emerged when the virus’ frequency abated in May and June.

August 06, 2020

Texas Jobs Decline at Historic Pace from Impact of COVID-19

Anil Kumar and Judy Teng

The decrease affected all major metro areas, with the steepest drops coming in El Paso, Fort Worth and Austin, followed closely by Houston, San Antonio and Dallas.

June 18, 2020

Falling Oil Prices Drag Down U.S. Business Investment

Garrett Golding, Martin Stuermer and Jesse Thompson

The dramatic decline in the price of oil has led to massive investment reductions by U.S. oil and gas producers.

May 14, 2020

Labor Economy at Greater Risk in Texas than U.S. During COVID-19 Crisis

Anil Kumar

The coronavirus crisis could more adversely affect the Texas economy than the U.S. economy due to the state’s relatively large share of at-risk jobs, a review of data suggests.

May 12, 2020

Texas Economic Activity Sharply Falls in Wake of COVID-19

Laila Assanie and Chloe Smith

Virus containment measures have prompted unprecedented declines in demand and triggered mass layoffs, shaking business and consumer confidence.

May 07, 2020

Texas Economic Activity Suddenly Contracts in March; Outlook Worsens Due to COVID-19

Jesus Cañas and Carlee Crocker

The economic downturn in Texas has begun, recent data suggest.

March 31, 2020

Potential Mismeasurement of Mining Limits Official Texas Real GDP Data

Keith R. Phillips and Christopher Slijk

We show how a new measure tied to oil and gas production provides a result that is more consistent with other assessments of real output in this industry.

February 25, 2020

Texas Economy Building Momentum to Start Year

Emily Kerr and Chloe Smith

Growth in the Texas economy picked up at year-end 2019 and accelerated into January and job gains in December were accompanied by service sector growth.

February 06, 2020

Texas Economy Picks Up in October; Data Revisions Show Weaker 2019 Growth

Keith Phillips, Judy Teng and Timothy Sherman

Texas job growth picked up in October, although the energy sector continued to slip and manufacturing activity weakened.

December 19, 2019

Texas Economy Still Growing, Though Pace Slows

Carlee Crocker and Yichen Su

The regional economy is growing at a slower pace than in recent months, with Texas labor markets remaining tight. Energy activity has declined, and export growth has slowed this year.

November 07, 2019

Failed Background Check, Drug Testing Stall Hiring of Low-Skilled Workers

Wenhua Di, Emily Kerr and Christopher Slijk

Many companies seek to add employees as the state economy continues expanding at an above-average pace. But not all can find the workers they need.

October 17, 2019

Texas Economy Keeps Growing Despite More Pessimistic Outlook

Chloe Smith, Christopher Slijk and Pia M. Orrenius

The regional economy is growing at a moderate pace, and labor markets remain tight. However, the outlook among Texas firms has deteriorated due to concern about tariffs, trade policy uncertainty and slowing global growth.

September 26, 2019

Domestic Migration to Texas Slows as National Labor Markets Tighten

Keith R. Phillips and Alexander T. Abraham

Despite a strong economy and historically low unemployment rates in Texas, net domestic migration to Texas from other states has slowed since 2015.

September 03, 2019

Services, Construction Lead Texas as Manufacturing, Energy Soften

Laila Assanie and Chloe N. Smith

Sluggish growth in manufacturing is attributable to softening demand for durables, which appears tied to a slowing energy sector.

August 08, 2019

Labor Scarcity, Trade Woes Squeeze Texas Business, Survey Finds

Emily Kerr and Christopher Slijk

Businesses face difficulty both trying to hire in a historically tight labor market and navigating tariffs and trade policy uncertainty.

July 11, 2019

Trade Relationships Affect U.S. Dollar Appreciation’s Impact Across States

Keith R. Phillips and Judy Teng

The value of the U.S. dollar against other currencies has appreciated, making most goods produced in the U.S. more expensive overseas during the past year.

July 09, 2019

Trade Tensions Cloud Outlook as Texas Experiences Moderate Growth

Stephanie Gullo and Anil Kumar

The region’s moderate expansion continues, despite a weakening outlook. Job gains were solid in May, with most industries and major metros adding to payrolls, and labor markets remaining historically tight.

June 27, 2019

Dallas Fed’s Texas Jobs Estimates Provide Early, Accurate Assessment

Keith R. Phillips and Alexander T. Abraham

The Bureau of Labor Statistics annually revises regional job estimates in a process called benchmarking. A Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas adjustment provides researchers a more current means of assessing Texas economic conditions.

May 16, 2019

Texas Economy Rebounds from Year-End Slowdown, Grows at Moderate Pace

Jason Saving and Judy Teng

Texas economic activity expanded moderately in the first quarter after downshifting markedly in November and December.

May 09, 2019

Texas Economic Activity Stabilizes, but Slower Job Growth Is Ahead

Jesus Cañas and Benjamin Meier

Output growth in Texas has stabilized after a relatively robust 2018. However, a tight labor market, slowing energy activity and weakening global demand will restrain Texas growth during 2019, an assessment consistent with the Dallas Fed’s outlook for the year.

April 04, 2019

Not Everything Is Bigger in Texas: The Varied Fortunes of Four Smaller Metros

Laila Assanie, Pia Orrenius and Michael Weiss

While Texas’ major metropolitan areas power the bulk of the state’s commercial activity, some smaller metros have worked to establish their place as part of the state’s economic mosaic.

February 21, 2019

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