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Labor

Se Habla Español: U.S. Yet to Realize Many Benefits of a Growing Bilingual Population

Enrique Martínez-García, María Teresa Martínez-García, Jarod Coulter and Valerie Grossman

The Spanish-only-speaking population in the U.S. faces many challenges that include overcoming often lesser income prospects compared with monolingual English speakers.

July 13, 2021

How Much Slack Is Left in the Labor Market?

Sean Howard, Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy

Our analysis shows that viewing the level of employment through the lens of the employment-to-population ratio does not indicate considerable slack in the labor market.

July 06, 2021

What the Trimmed Mean Says About Future Inflation: Broadening Price Pressures Ahead

Tyler Atkinson, Jim Dolmas, Marc P. Giannoni and Evan F. Koenig

As we look ahead to the rest of this year and into 2022, we expect that even as some of the extreme price increases responsible for the recent surge in headline inflation fade, a broader swath of goods and services will show meaningful price increases.

July 01, 2021

The Paycheck Protection Program: Conditional Success or Unconditional Failure?

Pavel Kapinos

The Paycheck Protection Program, a key provision of the CARES Act, sought to stabilize small business finances and maintain employment.

June 22, 2021

Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2021

Federal COVID-19 Relief Aided Consumer Debt, Though Immigrant Texans Derived Less Benefit

Wenhua Di and Chloe Smith

The prevalence of various federal-level assistance programs helped U.S. and Texas residents shore up their household finances during the COVID-19 recession. Among mostly immigrant groups, this tendency was less pronounced, likely due to legal and socioeconomic barriers.

June 18, 2021

The Labor Market May Be Tighter than the Level of Employment Suggests

Robert S. Kaplan, Tyler Atkinson, Jim Dolmas, Marc P. Giannoni and Karel Mertens

With payroll employment remaining well below its prior peak, slow job growth would typically suggest weak demand for labor from firms and limited employment opportunities for job seekers. Current conditions in the labor market, however, may be far from typical.

May 27, 2021

Global Perspectives: Claudia Aguirre on Community Development, High School Dropouts and Immigration

Mark A. Wynne

Aguirre and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed the origins of BakerRipley, its mission, the problem of high school dropouts and the contributions of immigrants.

May 25, 2021

Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2021

COVID-19 Slammed into Texas, Leaving Long-Lasting Impacts

Emily Kerr, Judy Teng and Keith Phillips

The economic road from the COVID-19 recession in Texas will likely feature a steeper, more rapid climb than the usual gradual rise associated with most recoveries.

April 09, 2021

For Many, Work-from-Home Arrangements Likely to Outlast Pandemic

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin and Karel Mertens

Many workers say they expect to work from home after the pandemic ends. Although commuting remained below prepandemic levels at year-end 2020, it is likely to increase in the near term as labor market conditions improve and home arrangements become more part time.

March 30, 2021

Pandemic Pushed the U.S. into Recession … and Hourly Wages Rose?

Sean Howard, Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy

The onset of COVID-19 in spring 2020 prompted an unprecedented rapid rise in the unemployment rate. However, a popular and widely cited wage measure—average hourly earnings (AHE)—rose sharply as the health crisis grew.

February 09, 2021

Pandemic Economic Lifeline: Taxes on Consumption, Labor that Fund Stay-at-Home Subsidies

Sewon Hur

Stay-at-home subsidies funded by taxes on consumption and labor—activities that contribute to viral transmission—can simultaneously reduce deaths and increase output.

January 12, 2021

Pandemic Disproportionately Affects Women, Minority Labor Force Participation

Tyler Atkinson and Alex Richter

Data showing changes in labor force participation rates for several demographics reveal that women with children, especially Black women, have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic.

November 10, 2020

Commuting Patterns During COVID-19 Endure; Minorities Less Likely to Work from Home

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin and Karel Mertens

Some workers transitioned to working from home relatively easily. In many jobs, however, performing regular work activities from home is impossible, forcing many individuals to become inactive or look for a new job.

September 01, 2020

COVID-19’s Unprecedented Impact Alters U.S. Labor Market

Joshua Bernstein, Alexander W. Richter and Nathaniel A. Throckmorton

A staggering 22.03 million initial claims for unemployment benefits were filed from mid-March to mid-April as the COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing stay-at-home policies took hold across the country.

June 23, 2020

Real-Time Population Survey Suggests U.S. Job Losses Slowed in Early May

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin and Karel Mertens

Survey results for the week of May 10 suggest further declines in employment and an increase in unemployment relative to the week of April 26 – May 2, though both changes are within the survey’s margin of error.

May 22, 2020

Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index Gives Insight into COVID-19’s Economic Impact

Tyler Atkinson, Jim Dolmas, Christoffer Koch, Evan Koenig, Karel Mertens, Anthony Murphy and Kei-Mu Yi

To gain insight into the economic impact of the pandemic, we developed an index of mobility and engagement, based on geolocation data collected from a large sample of mobile devices. (Revised June 3, 2020)

May 21, 2020

Real-Time Survey to Provide Timelier Labor Market Data in Era of COVID-19

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin and Karel Mertens

An effective economic policy response to the rapidly evolving coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis requires timely and accurate information on its impact. To help reduce the information gap, we introduce the Real-Time Population Survey.

May 15, 2020

Labor Economy at Greater Risk in Texas than U.S. During COVID-19 Crisis

Anil Kumar

The coronavirus crisis could more adversely affect the Texas economy than the U.S. economy due to the state’s relatively large share of at-risk jobs, a review of data suggests.

May 12, 2020

Without Immigration, U.S. Economy Will Struggle to Grow

Pia Orrenius and Chloe Smith

Slowing labor force growth is the product of a number of factors—the aging of the U.S. population, retiring baby boomers and declining birth rates. But another element is immigration.

April 09, 2020

Working from Home During a Pandemic: It’s Not for Everyone

Yichen Su

Because working remotely can offset the negative effects of shelter-in-place and social distancing policies on employment and earnings, knowing how many workers can do so is crucial to understanding the impact of such measures on our workforce.

April 07, 2020

Large, Dominant Firms Depress Local Wages; Housing Costs Help Offset Lower Pay

Joseph Tracy and Matthew E. Kahn

Concern has increased about the ability of very large firms to exert market power and hold down wages in localities where they dominate.

January 07, 2020

Moderate Wage Growth Spurs Search for ‘Hidden Slack’ in Labor Market

Michael Morris, Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy

In recent years, much has been made about the idea of hidden slack—unused labor capacity not captured by the unemployment rate.

December 17, 2019

Hours Worked by Women Age 55 to 61 Confound Labor Market Analysis

Carlos E. Zarazaga and Andrew Gross

The seemingly anomalous low LIUR of one particular demographic group poses a challenge for assessing the extent to which the U.S. economy is currently close to full employment.

November 26, 2019

What’s Up (or Not Up) with Wages?

Michael Morris, Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy

This is the third of three articles that talk about the natural rate of unemployment, the unemployment rate that would prevail in a “neutral” labor market after removing all movement due to the business cycle.

November 12, 2019

Failed Background Check, Drug Testing Stall Hiring of Low-Skilled Workers

Wenhua Di, Emily Kerr and Christopher Slijk

Many companies seek to add employees as the state economy continues expanding at an above-average pace. But not all can find the workers they need.

October 17, 2019

Labor Market Slack Disappeared by 2016

Michael Morris, Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy

This is the second of three articles that talk about the natural rate of unemployment, the unemployment rate that would prevail in a “neutral” labor market after removing all movement due to the business cycle.

October 15, 2019

A Natural Approach to Estimating the ‘Natural Rate’ of Unemployment

Michael Morris, Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy

The unemployment rate is a widely viewed gauge of U.S. labor market slack or tightness. Because of structural changes to the labor market over time, assessments about slack/tightness require a reference point called the “natural rate of unemployment.”

October 08, 2019

Domestic Migration to Texas Slows as National Labor Markets Tighten

Keith R. Phillips and Alexander T. Abraham

Despite a strong economy and historically low unemployment rates in Texas, net domestic migration to Texas from other states has slowed since 2015.

September 03, 2019

As Wages Rise, Are Black Workers Seeing the Smallest Gains?

Michael Morris, Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy

A recent article argued that black workers have received the smallest earnings gains among various groups since the beginning of the Great Recession. Our analysis suggests otherwise.

July 16, 2019

Labor Scarcity, Trade Woes Squeeze Texas Business, Survey Finds

Emily Kerr and Christopher Slijk

Businesses face difficulty both trying to hire in a historically tight labor market and navigating tariffs and trade policy uncertainty.

July 11, 2019

Room to Grow? Inflation and Labor Market Slack

Jim Dolmas and Evan F. Koenig

Compared with the usual ex-food-and-energy measure, the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate sends a clearer, more reliable signal about whether cyclical inflation pressures are building.

May 30, 2019

Dallas Fed’s Texas Jobs Estimates Provide Early, Accurate Assessment

Keith R. Phillips and Alexander T. Abraham

The Bureau of Labor Statistics annually revises regional job estimates in a process called benchmarking. A Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas adjustment provides researchers a more current means of assessing Texas economic conditions.

May 16, 2019

Online Retailing, Self-Employment Disrupt Inflation

John V. Duca

The employment status of increasing numbers of workers has become contingent in recent years—that is, there is greater freelance, or “gig,” employment. This development has coincided over the past two decades with an era of increasing online commerce that provides consumers a wider array of products and services at competitive prices.

April 16, 2019

How Much Do Movers Move Average Wage Growth?

Michael Morris, Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy

Data from the Current Population Survey, a household survey used to compute the unemployment rate, do not include individuals who change residences. If it could include movers, our previous estimate of 2018 average individual wage growth would increase from 5.0 percent to 5.5 percent or higher.

March 26, 2019

Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2019

Lower Oil Prices, Tight Labor Markets to Restrain Texas Growth in 2019

Keith R. Phillips and Judy Teng

Texas' economy should expand in 2019, though at a slower rate than in the prior year.

March 22, 2019

Is Wage Growth Higher than We Think?

Michael Morris, Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy

There is always widespread interest in the degree to which the U.S. labor market generates higher pay for workers. A standard measure of wage growth suggests that this expansion is not improving the standard of living of workers, but our analysis reveals that actual wage growth is understated.

February 26, 2019

Not Everything Is Bigger in Texas: The Varied Fortunes of Four Smaller Metros

Laila Assanie, Pia Orrenius and Michael Weiss

While Texas’ major metropolitan areas power the bulk of the state’s commercial activity, some smaller metros have worked to establish their place as part of the state’s economic mosaic.

February 21, 2019

Changes in Labor Force Participation Help Explain Recent Job Gains

Alex Richter, Tyler Atkinson and Laton Russell

The U.S. labor force participation rate declined following the Great Recession to a low of 62.3 percent in 2015.

February 19, 2019

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