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Average Inflation over the Pandemic Avoids 'Base-Effect' Distortions

Tyler Atkinson, Jim Dolmas and Marc P. Giannoni

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic early last year, the nation has seen enormous swings in consumer prices, with extraordinary declines last spring giving way to similarly eye-popping increases as the economy has reopened.

May 13, 2021

Fed’s New Inflation Targeting Policy Seeks to Maintain Well-Anchored Expectations

Enrique Martínez-García, Jarod Coulter and Valerie Grossman

The Fed’s evolving understanding of the economy and its reassessment of the natural rate of interest have led to arguably the most significant policy change since 2012.

April 06, 2021

Global Perspectives: Mark Carney on Leading the Bank of England, Climate Change, COVID-19 and Community Involvement

Mark A. Wynne

Mark Carney, special envoy for climate action and finance at the United Nations, discussed climate change and central banks, COVID-19 and central banking, the complementary roles of monetary and fiscal policy, and community engagement with Dallas Fed President Robert S. Kaplan.

December 01, 2020

Global Perspectives: John B. Taylor on the Taylor Rule, Accommodative Policy, Low Interest Rates and Expanded Central Bank Mandates

Mark A. Wynne

Taylor and Dallas Fed President Robert S. Kaplan discussed the origins of the Taylor Rule, the dangers of holding monetary policy too accommodative for too long, the distributional effects of low interest rates and expanded central bank mandates.

November 24, 2020

Global Perspectives: Banco de México’s Alejandro Díaz de León on COVID-19, Trade and Inflation Targeting

Mark A. Wynne

Díaz de León and Dallas Fed President Robert S. Kaplan discussed COVID-19, the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) and inflation targeting.

October 27, 2020

A New View of the Relationship Between Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices and Inflation Expectations

Lutz Kilian and Xiaoqing Zhou

It has been considered self-evident until recently that oil prices drive inflation expectations, but new evidence calls into question this conclusion.

September 22, 2020

Another Benefit of Trimming: Smaller Inflation Revisions

Jim Dolmas

With the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate, what you see in real time is closer to what you get after revision than is the case with the more conventional measure of core inflation, PCE excluding food and energy.

August 06, 2019

Consumers’ and Economists’ Differing Inflation Views Can Complicate Policymaking

Tyler Atkinson

Economists and consumers likely think of different concepts when they consider inflation. Economists typically focus on the underlying trend that monetary policy can steer. U.S. consumers appear to think instead about unpredictable changes in prices most relevant to their regular decision-making.

June 25, 2019

Room to Grow? Inflation and Labor Market Slack

Jim Dolmas and Evan F. Koenig

Compared with the usual ex-food-and-energy measure, the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate sends a clearer, more reliable signal about whether cyclical inflation pressures are building.

May 30, 2019

Which Core to Believe? Trimmed Mean Versus Ex-Food-and-Energy Inflation

Jim Dolmas and Evan F. Koenig

Twice since 2014, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation—inflation excluding food and energy—decelerated sharply, only to ultimately reverse course.

May 28, 2019

Global Perspectives: Janet Yellen on Becoming an Economist, Being Fed Chair and Views on Fed Independence

Mark Wynne

Janet Yellen holds a unique place in Federal Reserve history. It all began with a year as a humble Fed staff economist in 1977.

April 18, 2019

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