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Economic Conditions

Global Perspectives: John B. Taylor on the Taylor Rule, Accommodative Policy, Low Interest Rates and Expanded Central Bank Mandates

Mark A. Wynne

Taylor and Dallas Fed President Robert S. Kaplan discussed the origins of the Taylor Rule, the dangers of holding monetary policy too accommodative for too long, the distributional effects of low interest rates and expanded central bank mandates.

November 24, 2020

Impact of COVID-19 on Small Service Firms Clouds Texas Jobs Estimates

Emma Marshall and Keith R. Phillips

The 2020 downturn has differed from past recessions in many ways, particularly affecting high-contact service industries that contain a large number of independent businesses with few employees.

November 17, 2020

Texas Rebound Likely Slowed by Renewed COVID-19 Impact on Services, Retail

Yichen Su and Carlee Crocker

Indicative of slowing job expansion, the Texas unemployment rate rose to 8.3 percent in September from 6.8 percent in August and exceeded the national rate (7.9 percent) for the first time since March.

November 12, 2020

Pandemic Disproportionately Affects Women, Minority Labor Force Participation

Tyler Atkinson and Alex Richter

Data showing changes in labor force participation rates for several demographics reveal that women with children, especially Black women, have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic.

November 10, 2020

Global Perspectives: Banco de México’s Alejandro Díaz de León on COVID-19, Trade and Inflation Targeting

Mark A. Wynne

Díaz de León and Dallas Fed President Robert S. Kaplan discussed COVID-19, the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) and inflation targeting.

October 27, 2020

Global Perspectives: Richard W. Fisher on the COVID-19 Recovery, the Fed’s Response and the Future of Globalization

Mark A. Wynne

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas recently hosted Fisher, who served as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas from 2005 to 2015, as part of the Bank’s Global Perspectives speaker series.

October 20, 2020

Auto Industry on Road to Recovery from Pandemic

Carlee Crocker and Wenhua Di

After a series of disruptions in March and April that coincided with the widespread outbreak in the U.S., the auto industry has entered a recovery period, though its path forward remains uncertain.

October 13, 2020

Record Global GDP Contraction Indicative of COVID-19’s Cross-Country Effect

Abigail Boatwright and Mark A. Wynne

A number of studies have shown that individual households and businesses voluntarily scaling back social interactions as they learned about the risks associated with COVID-19 have probably played a more important role in damping economic activity than government mandates.

October 06, 2020

Texas Economy Improves Despite Lagging Sectors as COVID-19 Cases Decline

Pia Orrenius and Chloe Smith

Continued growth is projected for the rest of the year, but it may be somewhat restrained by the expiration of federal stimulus programs and election uncertainty.

September 24, 2020

Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2020

COVID-19’s Fiscal Ills: Busted Texas Budgets, Critical Local Choices

Jason Saving

COVID-19 and related economic shutdowns have raised concerns that state and local government revenues will fall short of expectations just as demand for services soars.

September 21, 2020

Commuting Patterns During COVID-19 Endure; Minorities Less Likely to Work from Home

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin and Karel Mertens

Some workers transitioned to working from home relatively easily. In many jobs, however, performing regular work activities from home is impossible, forcing many individuals to become inactive or look for a new job.

September 01, 2020

Texas Weekly Employment Estimate Provides New, Early Economic Insights

Jesus Cañas, Keith R. Phillips and Carlee Crocker

In this environment where economic conditions change very quickly and can reverse with the spread of the virus, tracking the Texas economy requires a timelier indicator than standard quarterly and monthly economic measures.

August 18, 2020

Insights from Dallas Fed Surveys: Uneven Economic Recovery Likely in Texas

Emily Kerr and Christopher Slijk

The Dallas Fed’s Texas Business Outlook Surveys (TBOS) show that while recovery continued in some sectors in July, it faltered in others as new COVID-19 cases surged across the state.

August 11, 2020

Texas Economy’s Rebound Stalls in July after Gains in May, June

Christopher Slijk and Keighton Hines

The resurgence of COVID-19 in July appears to have reversed economic gains in Texas that emerged when the virus’ frequency abated in May and June.

August 06, 2020

U.S. Economic Rebound Uneven amid Resurgent Local COVID-19 Outbreaks

Tyler Atkinson, Jackson Crawford, Sam Dannels and Andrew Gross

A full recovery to pre-pandemic levels of economic activity appears unlikely until the virus is under control.

August 04, 2020

Entry, Exit of Firms Amplify the Business Cycle

Joshua Bernstein, Alexander W. Richter and Nathaniel A. Throckmorton

When new businesses are created, they generate new jobs. When unprofitable businesses close, employees lose their jobs. Given the connection between firm entry and exit and changes in employment, it is natural to ask how this entry and exit affects the broader business cycle.

July 14, 2020

The Production Process Drives Fluctuations in Output and Uncertainty

Tyler Atkinson, Michael Plante, Alexander W. Richter and Nathaniel A. Throckmorton

If economic developments drive most of the changes in uncertainty—rather than the reverse—then the direct effect of a change in uncertainty on economic activity is much smaller than previous research has shown.

June 30, 2020

Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2020

Small Business Hardships Highlight Relationship with Lenders in COVID-19 Era

Wenhua Di, Nathaniel Pattison and Chloe Smith

The COVID-19 crisis has disrupted normal small business operations and will likely limit the ability of many enterprises to stay financially afloat.

June 23, 2020

COVID-19’s Unprecedented Impact Alters U.S. Labor Market

Joshua Bernstein, Alexander W. Richter and Nathaniel A. Throckmorton

A staggering 22.03 million initial claims for unemployment benefits were filed from mid-March to mid-April as the COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing stay-at-home policies took hold across the country.

June 23, 2020

Texas Jobs Decline at Historic Pace from Impact of COVID-19

Anil Kumar and Judy Teng

The decrease affected all major metro areas, with the steepest drops coming in El Paso, Fort Worth and Austin, followed closely by Houston, San Antonio and Dallas.

June 18, 2020

Global Perspectives: Donald Kohn on Greenspan and Bernanke, the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 Challenge

Mark A. Wynne

Kohn and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed Kohn’s career at the Fed, his experience during the Global Financial Crisis and his thoughts on the Fed’s reaction to the current crisis.

June 02, 2020

Early Mandated Social Distancing Does Best to Control COVID–19 Spread

Alexander Chudik, Hashem Pesaran, Alessandro Rebucci

Voluntary social distancing and a lack of compliance with mandated polices have led to unnecessarily high infection rates and death tolls in a number of countries.

May 28, 2020

CARES Act Likely to Blunt Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increase

Xiaoqing Zhou

Household survey data and recent unemployment forecasts provide a basis for estimating the share of mortgage borrowers that—absent the CARES Act—would have missed a mortgage payment due to the economic shutdown.

May 26, 2020

Real-Time Population Survey Suggests U.S. Job Losses Slowed in Early May

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin and Karel Mertens

Survey results for the week of May 10 suggest further declines in employment and an increase in unemployment relative to the week of April 26 – May 2, though both changes are within the survey’s margin of error.

May 22, 2020

Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index Gives Insight into COVID-19’s Economic Impact

Tyler Atkinson, Jim Dolmas, Christoffer Koch, Evan Koenig, Karel Mertens, Anthony Murphy and Kei-Mu Yi

To gain insight into the economic impact of the pandemic, we developed an index of mobility and engagement, based on geolocation data collected from a large sample of mobile devices. (Revised June 3, 2020)

May 21, 2020

How Falling Oil Prices in Early 2020 Weakened the U.S. Economy

Lutz Kilian, Michael D. Plante and Xiaoqing Zhou

The benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price of oil dropped by more than half from Jan. 21 to April 3. This oil price decline has weakened rather than strengthened the U.S. economy, making this event different from past episodes of falling oil prices.

May 19, 2020

Real-Time Survey to Provide Timelier Labor Market Data in Era of COVID-19

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin and Karel Mertens

An effective economic policy response to the rapidly evolving coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis requires timely and accurate information on its impact. To help reduce the information gap, we introduce the Real-Time Population Survey.

May 15, 2020

Falling Oil Prices Drag Down U.S. Business Investment

Garrett Golding, Martin Stuermer and Jesse Thompson

The dramatic decline in the price of oil has led to massive investment reductions by U.S. oil and gas producers.

May 14, 2020

Texas Economic Activity Sharply Falls in Wake of COVID-19

Laila Assanie and Chloe Smith

Virus containment measures have prompted unprecedented declines in demand and triggered mass layoffs, shaking business and consumer confidence.

May 07, 2020

Global Perspectives: Tom Hoenig on the Costs of COVID-19, Modern Monetary Theory and Fed Leadership

Mark A. Wynne

Hoenig and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed Hoenig’s views on the costs of the current crisis, potential solutions and the elements of effective leadership at the Fed.

April 28, 2020

Monetary Policy in Time of Pandemic

Evan F. Koenig

Some monetary policy strategies have greater potential than others to mitigate pandemic-related financial strains.

April 16, 2020

Working from Home During a Pandemic: It’s Not for Everyone

Yichen Su

Because working remotely can offset the negative effects of shelter-in-place and social distancing policies on employment and earnings, knowing how many workers can do so is crucial to understanding the impact of such measures on our workforce.

April 07, 2020

Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2020

Mexico’s Higher Costs Under USMCA May Potentially Offset Gains from China-Related Trade Spurt with U.S.

Daniel Chiquiar, Jesus Cañas, Armando Aguirre and Alfonso Cebreros

Approval of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) could change trade within the North American region, affecting output and weakening North America’s global competitiveness.

April 06, 2020

How the Saudi Decision to Launch a Price War Is Reshaping the Global Oil Market

Lutz Kilian

In the second week of March, the already fragile global oil market was rocked by Saudi Arabia’s announcement that it would expand oil production to unprecedented levels, signaling an end to its price cooperation with Russia.

April 02, 2020

Texas Economic Activity Suddenly Contracts in March; Outlook Worsens Due to COVID-19

Jesus Cañas and Carlee Crocker

The economic downturn in Texas has begun, recent data suggest.

March 31, 2020

Dallas Fed Energy Survey Results Point to Bleak Outlook for Oil Industry

Michael D. Plante and Kunal Patel

The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has plunged more than 50 percent since the start of the year as the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has taken hold and OPEC has failed to agree on global supply cuts.

March 26, 2020

Global Perspectives: William Dudley on the Financial Crisis, the New York Fed and Misconceptions about the Fed

Mark A. Wynne

Dudley and Dallas Fed President Robert S. Kaplan discussed Dudley’s role during the financial crisis, his leadership of the New York Fed and popular misconceptions about the Fed.

March 10, 2020

Marrying for Money Ends Up Reducing Income Inequality

Anton Cheremukhin and Antonella Tutino

The marriage market constitutes a way to ameliorate income inequality in the U.S. and to create bridges across the income ladder.

March 03, 2020

An Assessment of Economic Conditions and the Stance of Monetary Policy

Robert S. Kaplan

In his latest essay, posted on Dallas Fed Economics, President Rob Kaplan provides his assessment of current economic conditions, the outlook for the energy industry, and the current stance of monetary policy.

February 18, 2020

Economics of Love: Rejection Worth Chance at Dream Date

Anton Cheremukhin and Antonella Tutino

With the advance of social networks and increasing prevalence of online dating, the question of how men and women match up has gained importance in economics and society.

February 11, 2020

Texas Economy Building Momentum to Start Year

Emily Kerr and Chloe Smith

Growth in the Texas economy picked up at year-end 2019 and accelerated into January and job gains in December were accompanied by service sector growth.

February 06, 2020

The Long Road to Housing Finance Reform: 'Are We There Yet?'

W. Scott Frame and Joseph Tracy

Over the past decade, broad-based legislative reforms for housing finance have proven elusive. However, reflecting lessons from the financial crisis, a political consensus has emerged on how Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should operate.

February 04, 2020

After the Bust, the Long Road to Housing Finance Reform

W. Scott Frame and Joseph Tracy

The Treasury recently released a plan proposing several administrative and legislative changes aimed at returning Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to the private sector after more than a decade of federal control.

January 14, 2020

Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2019

Gentrification Transforming Neighborhoods in Big Texas Cities

Yichen Su

An influx of new, affluent residents has descended on gentrifying neighborhoods around Texas’ four largest cities, while increasing housing costs have led some low-income households and at-risk populations to locate in more suburban areas.

December 30, 2019

Texas Economy Picks Up in October; Data Revisions Show Weaker 2019 Growth

Keith Phillips, Judy Teng and Timothy Sherman

Texas job growth picked up in October, although the energy sector continued to slip and manufacturing activity weakened.

December 19, 2019

Moderate Wage Growth Spurs Search for ‘Hidden Slack’ in Labor Market

Michael Morris, Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy

In recent years, much has been made about the idea of hidden slack—unused labor capacity not captured by the unemployment rate.

December 17, 2019

Global Perspectives: Douglas Holtz-Eakin on Economic Projections, Deficits and Climate Change

Mark A. Wynne

Holtz-Eakin and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed Holtz-Eakin’s career as an economist, the economy, deficits and climate change.

December 12, 2019

Hours Worked by Women Age 55 to 61 Confound Labor Market Analysis

Carlos E. Zarazaga and Andrew Gross

The seemingly anomalous low LIUR of one particular demographic group poses a challenge for assessing the extent to which the U.S. economy is currently close to full employment.

November 26, 2019

Economic Policy Uncertainty Emerges as Drag on Stock Market

Pavel Kapinos and Alex Musatov

Over the past two years, virtually all of the downside pressure on stock prices has come from the elevated levels of such uncertainty.

November 19, 2019

What’s Up (or Not Up) with Wages?

Michael Morris, Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy

This is the third of three articles that talk about the natural rate of unemployment, the unemployment rate that would prevail in a “neutral” labor market after removing all movement due to the business cycle.

November 12, 2019

Texas Economy Still Growing, Though Pace Slows

Carlee Crocker and Yichen Su

The regional economy is growing at a slower pace than in recent months, with Texas labor markets remaining tight. Energy activity has declined, and export growth has slowed this year.

November 07, 2019

Consumer Surveys Suggest Economic Conditions Remain Healthy but Growth Is Slowing

Alexander W. Richter and Tyler Atkinson

The current divergence between two prominent consumer confidence indexes suggests that policymakers need to be mindful of a U.S. economy in transition.

November 05, 2019

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