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How Much Slack Is Left in the Labor Market?

Sean Howard, Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy

Our analysis shows that viewing the level of employment through the lens of the employment-to-population ratio does not indicate considerable slack in the labor market.

July 06, 2021

What the Trimmed Mean Says About Future Inflation: Broadening Price Pressures Ahead

Tyler Atkinson, Jim Dolmas, Marc P. Giannoni and Evan F. Koenig

As we look ahead to the rest of this year and into 2022, we expect that even as some of the extreme price increases responsible for the recent surge in headline inflation fade, a broader swath of goods and services will show meaningful price increases.

July 01, 2021

Investment in Mexico Falls Despite Rise in Remittances

Jesus Cañas and Chloe Smith

Mexico has grown more dependent on foreign direct investment and remittances after total investment declined sharply for a fourth consecutive year in 2020.

June 29, 2021

Labor Shortages, Supply Chain Woes Slow Texas Recovery

Laila Assanie and Carlee Crocker

The Texas economy is on the path to a solid recovery, although the pace of growth has eased since March, recent data suggest.

June 24, 2021

The Paycheck Protection Program: Conditional Success or Unconditional Failure?

Pavel Kapinos

The Paycheck Protection Program, a key provision of the CARES Act, sought to stabilize small business finances and maintain employment.

June 22, 2021

Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2021

Federal COVID-19 Relief Aided Consumer Debt, Though Immigrant Texans Derived Less Benefit

Wenhua Di and Chloe Smith

The prevalence of various federal-level assistance programs helped U.S. and Texas residents shore up their household finances during the COVID-19 recession. Among mostly immigrant groups, this tendency was less pronounced, likely due to legal and socioeconomic barriers.

June 18, 2021

Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2021

Texas Winter Deep Freeze Broke Refining, Petrochemical Supply Chains

Jesse Thompson

It may take the Texas petrochemical industry until year-end 2021 to fully recover from the record cold that triggered power outages and supply disruptions in mid-February.

June 18, 2021

Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2021

Banks Face New Challenges as Texas Rebounds from COVID-19 Shock

Amy Chapel, Kory Killgo and Kelly Klemme

The banking industry faced significant challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, with profitability declining to levels not seen since the 2008–09 financial crisis.

June 18, 2021

Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2021

Go Figure: Women Took Brunt of Pandemic Job Loss as Priorities Shifted to Home

Design: Olu Eseyin; Content: Yichen Su, Camila L. Holm

Working women fared worse than men in the pandemic—a reversal from the Great Recession.

June 18, 2021

Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2021

Spotlight: Oil Patch Productivity Rises; Jobs Vanish

Garrett Golding and Sean Howard

After major oil price busts in 2014 and 2020, the same engineering prowess that helped the oil and gas industry thrive has been driven to find efficiencies to lower operating costs.

June 18, 2021

The Labor Market May Be Tighter than the Level of Employment Suggests

Robert S. Kaplan, Tyler Atkinson, Jim Dolmas, Marc P. Giannoni and Karel Mertens

With payroll employment remaining well below its prior peak, slow job growth would typically suggest weak demand for labor from firms and limited employment opportunities for job seekers. Current conditions in the labor market, however, may be far from typical.

May 27, 2021

Texas Economic Activity Springs Ahead as Growth Strengthens

Anil Kumar and Judy Teng

Economic activity in Texas accelerated sharply in March, according to recent data that also indicate a continuation of the strong momentum.

May 06, 2021

Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2021

COVID-19 Slammed into Texas, Leaving Long-Lasting Impacts

Emily Kerr, Judy Teng and Keith Phillips

The economic road from the COVID-19 recession in Texas will likely feature a steeper, more rapid climb than the usual gradual rise associated with most recoveries.

April 09, 2021

Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2021

COVID-19 Poses Stubborn Challenge to Economic Growth in Mexico

Jesus Cañas and Chloe Smith

Mexico, confronting a high rate of COVID-19 infection and an ineffectual medical response, recorded the largest decline in gross domestic product in a quarter century last year.

April 09, 2021

Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2021

Spotlight: Pandemic Pushes Texas Minority Unemployment Beyond Highs Reached During Great Recession

Carlee Crocker and Pia Orrenius

Recessions are hardest on minorities; the COVID-19 downturn is no different in that regard. More than half of Texas’ population is Hispanic or Black and the consequences are far-reaching if those groups lag behind economically.

April 09, 2021

Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2021

Go Figure: Collapsing Fuel Demand Tanks Texas Exports During Pandemic’s Peak

Design: Justin Chavira; Content: Emma Marshall, Pia Orrenius

The COVID-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on Texas energy exports. U.S. energy exports excluding Texas were dramatically less affected.

April 09, 2021

Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2021

Snapshot: Dining Out Picks Up in Texas, Houston

The number of patrons dining at restaurants surged in Texas and Houston after the state thawed from a deep freeze in February and COVID-19 constraints on restaurants and bars were lifted March 10.

April 09, 2021

For Many, Work-from-Home Arrangements Likely to Outlast Pandemic

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin and Karel Mertens

Many workers say they expect to work from home after the pandemic ends. Although commuting remained below prepandemic levels at year-end 2020, it is likely to increase in the near term as labor market conditions improve and home arrangements become more part time.

March 30, 2021

Texas Economic Conditions Improve as Price Pressures Build

Jesus Cañas and James Lee

Economic conditions in Texas have improved, with the Texas Business Outlook Surveys in February showing a pickup in growth after a deceleration in January.

March 25, 2021

Effects of COVID-19 on Tourism, Energy Weigh on Texas, New Mexico, Louisiana

Keighton Hines and Keith R. Phillips

Economic performance within the individual states of the Eleventh District reflected those states’ underlying relative dependence on the tourism and energy sectors and the effects of restrictions on mobility and engagement during COVID-19.

March 23, 2021

COVID-19 Risks Expose Vulnerabilities, Downside Risks to U.S. Outlook

Jarod Coulter and Enrique Martínez-García

The COVID-19 crisis has adversely affected the U.S. economy, helping account for a projected 3.4 percent contraction in 2020. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) anticipates a strong 4.6 percent rebound in 2021, making up for those losses.

March 02, 2021

Systemic Risks, Interdependencies Weigh on 2021 Global Outlook

Jarod Coulter and Enrique Martínez-García

The path of economic recovery from the COVID-19 recession remains far from clear. A fitful rollout of vaccines and governmental responses to new variants of the virus loom over a global growth rebound that private forecasters estimate at 5.5 percent for 2021.

February 16, 2021

Pandemic Pushed the U.S. into Recession … and Hourly Wages Rose?

Sean Howard, Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy

The onset of COVID-19 in spring 2020 prompted an unprecedented rapid rise in the unemployment rate. However, a popular and widely cited wage measure—average hourly earnings (AHE)—rose sharply as the health crisis grew.

February 09, 2021

Texas Economy Soft in January, but Outlook Optimistic for Later in 2021

Emily Kerr and Chloe Smith

Regional economic conditions appeared to deteriorate in January after picking up at year-end, data show. Nonetheless, there is optimism regarding the outlook for growth later this year.

February 04, 2021

COVID-19 Exposes Mortgage Market Vulnerabilities that Led to Volatility, Fed Intervention

W. Scott Frame, Brendan McCartney and Eva Steiner

The COVID-19-induced financial market shock in March 2020 significantly disrupted the market for agency mortgage-backed securities.

February 02, 2021

Pandemic Economic Lifeline: Taxes on Consumption, Labor that Fund Stay-at-Home Subsidies

Sewon Hur

Stay-at-home subsidies funded by taxes on consumption and labor—activities that contribute to viral transmission—can simultaneously reduce deaths and increase output.

January 12, 2021

Does Homeownership Provide an Escape from High Rent Burdens?

Sam Dannels, W. Scott Frame, Kristopher Gerardi and Joseph Tracy

Many first-time homebuyers—often with little savings and vulnerable to economic shocks—obtain their mortgages through the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loan program. Often, these borrowers are moving from apartments and have presumably weighed the costs of renting versus owning.

January 05, 2021

COVID-19 Resurgence Across Texas Depresses Economic Growth

Keith R. Phillips and Judy Teng

Texas job growth has slowed after new daily COVID-19 cases in the state began surging in mid-October.

December 24, 2020

Global Perspectives: Mark Carney on Leading the Bank of England, Climate Change, COVID-19 and Community Involvement

Mark A. Wynne

Mark Carney, special envoy for climate action and finance at the United Nations, discussed climate change and central banks, COVID-19 and central banking, the complementary roles of monetary and fiscal policy, and community engagement with Dallas Fed President Robert S. Kaplan.

December 01, 2020

Global Perspectives: John B. Taylor on the Taylor Rule, Accommodative Policy, Low Interest Rates and Expanded Central Bank Mandates

Mark A. Wynne

Taylor and Dallas Fed President Robert S. Kaplan discussed the origins of the Taylor Rule, the dangers of holding monetary policy too accommodative for too long, the distributional effects of low interest rates and expanded central bank mandates.

November 24, 2020

Impact of COVID-19 on Small Service Firms Clouds Texas Jobs Estimates

Emma Marshall and Keith R. Phillips

The 2020 downturn has differed from past recessions in many ways, particularly affecting high-contact service industries that contain a large number of independent businesses with few employees.

November 17, 2020

Texas Rebound Likely Slowed by Renewed COVID-19 Impact on Services, Retail

Yichen Su and Carlee Crocker

Indicative of slowing job expansion, the Texas unemployment rate rose to 8.3 percent in September from 6.8 percent in August and exceeded the national rate (7.9 percent) for the first time since March.

November 12, 2020

Pandemic Disproportionately Affects Women, Minority Labor Force Participation

Tyler Atkinson and Alex Richter

Data showing changes in labor force participation rates for several demographics reveal that women with children, especially Black women, have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic.

November 10, 2020

Global Perspectives: Banco de México’s Alejandro Díaz de León on COVID-19, Trade and Inflation Targeting

Mark A. Wynne

Díaz de León and Dallas Fed President Robert S. Kaplan discussed COVID-19, the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) and inflation targeting.

October 27, 2020

Global Perspectives: Richard W. Fisher on the COVID-19 Recovery, the Fed’s Response and the Future of Globalization

Mark A. Wynne

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas recently hosted Fisher, who served as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas from 2005 to 2015, as part of the Bank’s Global Perspectives speaker series.

October 20, 2020

Auto Industry on Road to Recovery from Pandemic

Carlee Crocker and Wenhua Di

After a series of disruptions in March and April that coincided with the widespread outbreak in the U.S., the auto industry has entered a recovery period, though its path forward remains uncertain.

October 13, 2020

Record Global GDP Contraction Indicative of COVID-19’s Cross-Country Effect

Abigail Boatwright and Mark A. Wynne

A number of studies have shown that individual households and businesses voluntarily scaling back social interactions as they learned about the risks associated with COVID-19 have probably played a more important role in damping economic activity than government mandates.

October 06, 2020

Highly Indebted FHA Borrowers at Special Risk as COVID-19 Forbearance Ends

Sam Dannels, W. Scott Frame, Kristopher Gerardi and Joseph Tracy

The situation appears most urgent for those borrowers who entered the crisis with a high debt load and little room to financially navigate without forbearance.

September 29, 2020

Texas Economy Improves Despite Lagging Sectors as COVID-19 Cases Decline

Pia Orrenius and Chloe Smith

Continued growth is projected for the rest of the year, but it may be somewhat restrained by the expiration of federal stimulus programs and election uncertainty.

September 24, 2020

Commuting Patterns During COVID-19 Endure; Minorities Less Likely to Work from Home

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin and Karel Mertens

Some workers transitioned to working from home relatively easily. In many jobs, however, performing regular work activities from home is impossible, forcing many individuals to become inactive or look for a new job.

September 01, 2020

Global Perspectives: Marvin E. Odum on the COVID-19 Fight, Energy Outlook

Mark A. Wynne

Odum and Dallas Fed President Robert S. Kaplan participated in a moderated conversation with Krys Boyd of KERA and discussed the ongoing pandemic and how best to contain it.

August 25, 2020

Texas Weekly Employment Estimate Provides New, Early Economic Insights

Jesus Cañas, Keith R. Phillips and Carlee Crocker

In this environment where economic conditions change very quickly and can reverse with the spread of the virus, tracking the Texas economy requires a timelier indicator than standard quarterly and monthly economic measures.

August 18, 2020

Insights from Dallas Fed Surveys: Uneven Economic Recovery Likely in Texas

Emily Kerr and Christopher Slijk

The Dallas Fed’s Texas Business Outlook Surveys (TBOS) show that while recovery continued in some sectors in July, it faltered in others as new COVID-19 cases surged across the state.

August 11, 2020

Texas Economy’s Rebound Stalls in July after Gains in May, June

Christopher Slijk and Keighton Hines

The resurgence of COVID-19 in July appears to have reversed economic gains in Texas that emerged when the virus’ frequency abated in May and June.

August 06, 2020

U.S. Economic Rebound Uneven amid Resurgent Local COVID-19 Outbreaks

Tyler Atkinson, Jackson Crawford, Sam Dannels and Andrew Gross

A full recovery to pre-pandemic levels of economic activity appears unlikely until the virus is under control.

August 04, 2020

Entry, Exit of Firms Amplify the Business Cycle

Joshua Bernstein, Alexander W. Richter and Nathaniel A. Throckmorton

When new businesses are created, they generate new jobs. When unprofitable businesses close, employees lose their jobs. Given the connection between firm entry and exit and changes in employment, it is natural to ask how this entry and exit affects the broader business cycle.

July 14, 2020

Global Perspectives: Epidemiologists Robert Haley and Trish Perl on Fighting COVID-19

Mark A. Wynne

Haley, Perl and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed the ongoing pandemic, how best to contain it and prospects for a vaccine.

July 09, 2020

Policymakers’ Response to COVID-19 Can Draw on Great Recession Lessons

Enrique Martínez-García and Jarod Coulter

Central banks’ experience before and during the 2007–09 Great Recession suggests that they have ample tools to support the economy.

July 07, 2020

COVID-19’s Unprecedented Impact Alters U.S. Labor Market

Joshua Bernstein, Alexander W. Richter and Nathaniel A. Throckmorton

A staggering 22.03 million initial claims for unemployment benefits were filed from mid-March to mid-April as the COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing stay-at-home policies took hold across the country.

June 23, 2020

Texas Jobs Decline at Historic Pace from Impact of COVID-19

Anil Kumar and Judy Teng

The decrease affected all major metro areas, with the steepest drops coming in El Paso, Fort Worth and Austin, followed closely by Houston, San Antonio and Dallas.

June 18, 2020

Early Mandated Social Distancing Does Best to Control COVID–19 Spread

Alexander Chudik, Hashem Pesaran, Alessandro Rebucci

Voluntary social distancing and a lack of compliance with mandated polices have led to unnecessarily high infection rates and death tolls in a number of countries.

May 28, 2020

CARES Act Likely to Blunt Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increase

Xiaoqing Zhou

Household survey data and recent unemployment forecasts provide a basis for estimating the share of mortgage borrowers that—absent the CARES Act—would have missed a mortgage payment due to the economic shutdown.

May 26, 2020

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