Dallas Fed: Texas Adds 41,600 Jobs in November; State Employment Forecast Calls for 1.9 Percent Growth in 2019
DALLAS—Texas added 41,600 jobs in November, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
The state added a revised 35,200 jobs in October. Year-to-date annualized job growth stands at 2.0 percent compared to annual growth of 2.4 percent in 2018.
Incorporating November job growth of 4.0 percent and a pickup in the November leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 1.9 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.6 to 2.2 percent.
Based on the forecast, 243,500 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2019 will be 12.9 million.
“Texas employment growth strengthened in November,” said Christopher Slijk, Dallas Fed assistant economist. “Growth in the goods-producing sector surged, with construction employment accelerating and manufacturing rebounding sharply from October’s weakness.”
“Service sector employment remained robust, led by growth in health care and trade, transportation, and utilities. Combined with the uptick in the Texas Leading Index, such growth suggests a solid pace of economic expansion going into 2020,” Slijk said.
Unemployment rates held steady in six of the nine major Texas metro areas in November, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed. Rates ticked down in El Paso and rose slightly in the Houston and McAllen-Edinburg-Mission metro areas.
The Dallas Fed improves Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) payroll employment estimates for Texas by incorporating preliminary benchmarks into the data in a more timely manner and by using a two-step seasonal-adjustment technique. The Dallas Fed also seasonally adjusts Texas metropolitan-area unemployment rates from the BLS.
The Dallas Fed releases its Texas Employment Forecast on a monthly basis in conjunction with the release of monthly Texas employment data. The forecast projects job growth for the calendar year and is estimated as the 12-month change in payroll employment from December to December. For information on the methodology for the Bank’s Texas Employment Forecast, visit the Dallas Fed’s website.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: (214) 922-6748