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Dallas Fed: Texas Adds 7,400 Jobs in September; State Employment Forecast Decreases to 2.1 Percent Growth in 2019

For Immediate Release: October 18, 2019

DALLAS—Texas added 7,400 jobs in September, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

The state added a revised 19,500 jobs in August. Year-to-date annualized job growth stands at 2.1 percent compared to annual growth of 2.4 percent in 2018.

Incorporating September job growth of 0.7 percent and a decrease in the September leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.1 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.7 to 2.5 percent.

Based on the forecast, 263,700 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2019 will be 12.9 million.

“After strong growth in June and July, Texas jobs decelerated in August and September,” said Keith R. Phillips, Dallas Fed assistant vice president and senior economist.  “Mining jobs declined at an 8.0 percent annualized rate in the third quarter. The weakness in oil and gas extraction is spilling over to other sectors such as transportation and warehousing which experienced job losses in both August and September.”

“Manufacturing employment continues to grow at a good pace, however, in part driven by continued strength in petrochemical and refining activity.  Construction activity also remains robust,” Phillips said.

Unemployment rates in four of the nine major Texas metro areas in September remained unchanged, while Dallas–Plano–Irving, Fort Worth–Arlington, Houston, San Antonio–New Braunfels and Laredo ticked down according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed.

The Dallas Fed improves Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) payroll employment estimates for Texas by incorporating preliminary benchmarks into the data in a more timely manner and by using a two-step seasonal-adjustment technique. The Dallas Fed also seasonally adjusts Texas metropolitan-area unemployment rates from the BLS.

The Dallas Fed releases its Texas Employment Forecast on a monthly basis in conjunction with the release of monthly Texas employment data. The forecast projects job growth for the calendar year and is estimated as the 12-month change in payroll employment from December to December. For information on the methodology for the Bank’s Texas Employment Forecast, visit the Dallas Fed’s website.

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Media contact:
Jennifer Chamberlain
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: (214) 922-6748
Email: jennifer.chamberlain@dal.frb.org